Monday, November 7, 2016

2016 Election Forecast

At last the moment you've all been waiting for, my 2016 presidential election prediction.

I still feel that we are facing a Democrtic wave, albeit a smaller one than when Comey opened his mouth.  Tracking polls give Clinton a 3% to 5% lead but the likely voter screens most polling agencies use have a bit of a Republican bias since they are based on previous voting history and there is strong evidence of more first time voters among this black and Hispanic communities, so I think her lead is probably more in the area of 6% to 8%.

That's why I have Ohio going blue, especially on the basis of stories about 4,000 person lines for early voting in Cincinnati.  The enthusiasm - even if it is more anti-Trump rather than pro-Hillary - lies with the Democrats.

That said, until two weeks ago I had Georgia going blue as well and I think Comey's intervention took some wind out of those sails and has energized pro-Trump forces in those places where he already had a strong lead like the South and Midwest.  But I do think Georgia is going to be closer than many expect and don't be surprised if it is called relatively late on Tuesday night.

I think McMullin is going to win Utah on a strong anti-Trump protest vote among Mormons and that, along with strong Hispanic turnout, is going to give Hillary Arizona as well.

As for the Senate, it looks to me like the Demcrats end up with 52 or 53 seats.  But so many of the individual races are so close that I am loathe to call specific ones either red or blue.

I wish I could say we are going to see a Democratic House but while I think the Dems will claw back some districts they've lost in recent years I doubt they are going to get a majority.  That's going to put Paul Ryan in and interesting and stressful position.

1 comment:

  1. What's the story with Nebraska being both blue and red?